After a long year of filmmaking battling the ever-growing artificial intelligence industry, true art continues to prevail. The Oscars’ Best Picture category alone brought in over $1.4 billion dollars to production companies this year. 

This year’s nominations are stacked; leading with a record breaking sixteen nominations is Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, followed by Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle Another with thirteen nominations and then Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value with nine. Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet has eight nominations this year and Bugonia, F1, and The Secret Agent all have four. 

All of these films have been nominated for Best Picture, the prestigious Academy Award that gives whoever wins the title of “best film of the year.” 

But who will win this award this year, and who really should? I took it into my own hands to watch every nominated movie, as well as research other amazing major entertainment publications, to see who has the best odds of winning each category at the 98th Academy Awards this Sunday, along with who, in my opinion, deserves the award.

For a quick legend: underlined nominations will be who is predicted as the winner of their category, based on my research from watching the nominated movies as well as what other publications are saying and who has the best odds to come home with the trophy based on predictions on site like the popular Kalshi and Polymarket.

For a quick legend: nominations in bold will be who is predicted as the winner of their category, based on my watching the films along with researching on popular prediction websites, like Kalshi and Polymarket, who is likely to win.

BEST PICTURE

Bugonia 

F1 

Frankenstein 

Hamnet 

Marty Supreme 

One Battle After Another 

The Secret Agent 

Sentimental Value 

Sinners 

Train Dreams

This year is one of the harder years to pick a winner, but the odds are high that the producers of One Battle After Another will take home their Oscars for Best Picture. After releasing in theaters last September, One Battle After Another has been loved by audiences and critics:

This film, comprised of amazing direction by Paul Thomas Anderson and career defining performances by actors Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, and Teyana Taylor. Some critics claim that the performance given by DiCaprio is his best performance of his career. The film is praised for its stunning visuals, especially in the IMAX format, and also for its story that is carried by the strong father-daughter relationship.

However, fighting for the Oscar, in my opinion more than others, is Ryan Coogler’s stunning Sinners. My pick for the film that deserves Best Picture, this film is a spectacular watch, start to finish. Blending genres and with many career defining and also career creating performances, the original story is one of the only other films nominated for this category that could and should win. Sinners is one of the most critically acclaimed movies in the Best Picture category:

Sinners has a really good chance to take home the Best Picture category.

BEST DIRECTOR

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another 

Ryan Coogler, Sinners 

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme 

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value 

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

My good friend and fellow film buff told me that usually Best Picture and Best Director go hand in hand. If one film wins Best Picture, the odds are high that the director of that movie will win Best Director. Paul Thomas Anderson gave the directing of a lifetime, propelling stars of the film to be the best they could, to make the best film they could. 

The only other director I could see taking home this award would be Ryan Coogler. He not only wrote, but directed this original film. With the stacked cast he was given, he made cinema breathe a sigh of relief as the film skyrocketed, winning 304 awards already and being a heavy box office success. The film was released in April of 2025 and is still in theaters today. So if someone were to take the Oscar besides Paul Thomas Anderson, it would most likely be Ryan Coogler.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet 

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You 

Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue 

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value 

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Hamnet was carried by the acting and no one stands out more than Jessie Buckley. She has officially swept the category up to the Academy Awards after winning the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, and SAG/Actor Award in the category. Her performance of a grieving mother in the film has been widely praised by critics as deeply emotional and has most definitely solidified the Oscar.

It is hard to think of who could possibly beat out the performance given by Jessie Buckley in Hamnet, but if I personally had to choose someone else, I would have to say that Rose Byrne from If I Had Legs I’d Kick You might be able to upset Buckley in Hamnet. Her performance is amazing, but every entertainment source, as well as betting/prediction sites Polymarket and Kalshi have Buckley’s win secured at over 90%.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

 Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another 

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners 

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

What a hard category this year. Amazing performances were given by all the actors in this category. Leonardo DiCaprio had a performance to challenge his Oscar winning one in The Revenant. Michael B. Jordan gave us two performances with two completely different characters in Sinners. Wagner Moura and Ethan Hawke both brought characters to life that no one else could. However, I think it is finally the year that Timothée Chalamet will finally get his Academy Award. Chalamet trained for many years to prepare for the role of Marty Mauser and after his loss of the Oscar last year for his portrayal of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown, I believe that with the performance he gave this year, in the last scene alone, he finally will get what he deserves, and take his place among the greats.

However, after recent upsets, I believe that there is still a small chance that Michael B. Jordan could take home the Oscar. The film’s popularity and the performances that Jordan gifted to the film, could possibly win over the votes of Academy members. However, it is hard to beat Timothée Chalamet and the movie’s promotion was too good to not be awarded, and Timothée Chalamet winning Best Actor is more deserved than ever.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value 

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value 

Amy Madigan, Weapons 

Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners 

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Coming away from nomination night on January 22, Teyana Taylor has been the favorite to win her first Academy Award. Her performance in One Battle After Another stands out even though the nominations for this year’s Best Actress in a Supporting Role category. Many critics are claiming that her performance as Perfidia Beverly Hills was a commanding, electric, and emotionally complex breakout role.

If anyone else had to take it, and don’t get me wrong I believe Teyana Taylor deserves this award fully. But after a recent win at Actor Awards, Amy Madigan could upset Taylor’s high odds of winning. As the antagonist in the highly acclaimed horror movie Weapons, Madigan’s strong and eerie performance scared not only audiences worldwide, but also her co-star Josh Brolin in one of his dreams during the movie. If you know what I’m talking about, that is probably one of the scariest scenes but also funniest in the entire movie. The odds are in Teyana Taylor’s favor and I myself am rooting for her, but I wouldn’t be upset if Amy Madigan or really any of the other nominees came home with the Oscar.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another

 Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein 

Delroy Lindo, Sinners 

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another 

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Yet another really strong acting category as well as Best Actress in a Supporting Role, I wouldn’t be upset if anyone took home this award. However, after a strong award season and his odds shooting up day by day, Sean Penn seems to be the favorite to win this award. His portrayal of the character Col. Steven J. Lockjaw in One Battle After Another rivals his other performances in other films—obviously not in Mystic River, but still one of his best performances.

I do not care what critics think and what the odds are; if anyone else would deserve this award this year, it would be Delroy Lindo with his outstanding performance in Sinners. His performance rivals that of Sean Penn, but even still, Penn is the favorite to win and he took on his Colonel role and killed it.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

Bugonia, written by Will Tracy 

Frankenstein, written for the screen by Guillermo del Toro 

Hamnet, written by Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell 

One Battle After Another, written by Paul Thomas Anderson 

Train Dreams, written by Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar

Every story in the film industry starts with a script, and the script for Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another was known for reaching a draft length of approximately 600 pages during its nearly two-decade development. Loosely adapted from the book by Thomas Pynchon, the 1990 novel Vineland. 

I don’t see too many other options to win this award and it seems like it is already in the hands of Paul Thomas Anderson. If I personally would choose someone else to win the award, I would give it to Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell for Hamnet. The amazing writing work transforms Maggie O’Farrell’s acclaimed novel into a touching exploration of grief and creativity.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Blue Moon, written by Robert Kaplow 

It Was Just an Accident, written by Jafar Panahi and collaborated with; Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, and Mehdi Mahmoudian 

Marty Supreme, written by Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie 

Sentimental Value, written by Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier 

Sinners, written by Ryan Coogler

Another hard category is presented as the nominees for Best Original Screenplay all produced amazing original screenplays for an amazing year of film. However, if there was one screenplay that stood out from the rest, it would be Ryan Coogler’s creation of Sinners. The story was inspired by Coogler’s family history and the folklore and music of the time. In fact, the original story was loved by so many that many fans are asking for its own cinematic universe, the “SCU.”

It is hard to find another nominee that would deserve this award more than Ryan Coogler, but if anyone would possibly upset Sinners, it would most likely be Josh Safdie and Ronald Bronstein’s Marty Supreme. The script was turned into a masterpiece on screen and with an amazing cast and strong writers and directors, Marty Supreme could take home an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

The Secret Agent, Brazil 

It Was Just an Accident, France 

Sentimental Value, Norway 

Sirāt, Spain 

The Voice of Hind Rajab, Tunisia

The Academy Award for Best International Film contains pictures that are produced outside of the United States, as well as containing 50% or more of dialogue in another language that isn’t English. This year, with the same amount of nominations as Frankenstein and Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value is the favorite to take home the Oscar. 

Because it is nominated nine times, if it wins in other categories, there is a good chance that The Secret Agent could end up the winner. Sources say that the Academy “sharing the wealth” and if Sentimental Value can take an award in another category, this award’s outcome could change.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

The Alabama Solution 

Come See Me in the Good Light 

Cutting Through Rocks 

Mr. Nobody Against Putin

The Perfect Neighbor

The Perfect Neighbor is a true-crime documentary about Black single mother Ajike Owens who was killed in 2023 by their white neighbor Susan Lorincz. This movie is predicted to win Best Documentary this year after taking home both the Critics Choice Award and Independent Spirit Award. The found footage spectacle is the first of its kind to be nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature.

Taking home the BAFTA and possibly being able to take home the Oscar as well is Mr. Nobody Against Putin. The film’s relevance could sway the opinion of many voters this year, however the overall odds go to The Perfect Neighbor.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Arco 

Elio 

KPop Demon Hunters 

Little Amélie or the Character of Rain 

Zootopia 2

It is surprising to believe that KPop Demon Hunters doesn’t have a 100% chance to win the Academy Award for Animated Feature. The movie has taken the United States and the rest of the world by storm and is, even though it doesn’t have a 100% chance of winning, is easily the favorite to win this category, even if every other nominee is another great movie as well. Netflix and the creators have already won sixty-seven awards this season and with the international love it has gotten, the world would explode if it didn’t win.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Frankenstein, Dan Laustsen 

Marty Supreme, Darius Khondji 

One Battle After Another, Michael Bauman 

Sinners, Autumn Durald Arkapaw 

Train Dreams, Adolpho Veloso

If Autumn Durald Arkapaw were to win at the 98th Academy Awards this Sunday, she would be the first woman to win the Oscar for Best Cinematography. Using IMAX cameras and their 70mm cameras, Arkapaw created a beautiful image on the giant screens that this movie is made for. The aspect ratios changing during the duration of the film extended the meaning of the story so much and carried the film to have the highest odds to take home the Oscar.

However, it is a close race—right under Autumn Durald Arkapaw for the Oscar is Michael Bauman for One Battle After Another and right below him is Adolpho Veloso for Train Dreams. It seems like the Oscar could sway in the favor of Bauman and his stunning visuals, however the skills by Arkapaw to create Sinners may just be too good to beat. I am assuming that the idea of Autumn Durald Arkapaw making history with a win will give her an edge as well over the other nominees.

BEST FILM EDITING

F1, Stephen Mirrione 

Marty Supreme, Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie 

One Battle After Another, Andy Jurgensen 

Sentimental Value, Olivier Bugge Coutté 

Sinners, Michael P. Shawver

For the win in this category there seems to be a fight to the death between F1 and One Battle After Another, and no matter what sources I research, no one can really make up their mind. To be honest, neither can I. Torn between the two films are many major entertainment publications that have contradicting choices and are canceling each other out. So in comes my opinion, and that sways in the favor of Stephen Mirrione for the movie of the year, F1. I’ve seen F1 more times than any other nominee this year (5 times) and I have to say, the editing keeps the movie at a ten out of ten for me. The transitions from scene to scene and the creative and never the same editing style during each race in the film held my attention throughout the movie. A sports movie needs to have good editing, and F1 has it.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Dear Me,” Diane Warren: Relentless 

“Golden,” KPop Demon Hunters 

“I Lied to You,” Sinners 

“Sweet Dreams of Joy,” Viva Verdi! 

“Train Dreams,” Train Dreams

With the success of the full movie, the number one billboard hit “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters is easily the obvious choice to win this award. If I had to pick a song that could upset KPop Demon Hunters and could possibly deserve it more than the record breaking hit, I would pick “I Lied to You” from Sinners. In my opinion, a thousand times better of a song than “Golden” however the two shouldn’t be compared because honestly they are both completely different. Maybe they should each win their own Oscar.

BEST CASTING

Hamnet, Nina Gold 

Marty Supreme, Jennifer Venditti 

One Battle After Another, Cassandra Kulukundis 

The Secret Agent, Gabriel Domingues 

Sinners, Francine Maisler

Finally, after two years of waiting, the newest category to win at the Academy Awards has arrived. Luckily, this year won’t be hard to decide. The casting done by Francine Maisler for Sinners might just be too hard to beat. From Michael B. Jordan, Hailee Steinfeld, Delroy Lindo, Wunmi Mosaku, and Jack O’Connell to the brand new amazing Miles Caton. The list goes on and on, so much talent in the cast.

The casting of Sinners deserves this Oscar so much, but if I had to pick any other casting director to win, I see Jennifer Venditti upsetting Maisler. Timothée Chalamet and Odessa A’zion felt perfect for their roles, but nothing too special. If I was giving this award to Marty Supreme, it would be because of Tyler Okonma, better known as Tyler, The Creator. What a debut role for the artist, a career making performance.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Bugonia, Jerskin Fendrix 

Frankenstein, Alexandre Desplat 

Hamnet, Max Richter 

One Battle After Another, Jonny Greenwood 

Sinners, Ludwig Göransson

It looks set that Sinners will be taking home another Oscar for the amazing score, done by Ludwig Göransson. It seems like he has never not been critically acclaimed for work he has done and he recently won for his work on the amazing Oppenheimer. I don’t see an upset for this category—the score done for Sinners is too powerful and the odds are stacked against all the other composers and the fact that Sinners is a movie about music, it seems pretty set.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Deborah L. Scott 

Frankenstein, Kate Hawley 

Hamnet, Malgosia Turzanska 

Marty Supreme, Miyako Bellizzi 

Sinners, Ruth E. Carter

Oh it is difficult, the category for costumes is once again, stacked. Odds, along with myself, believe that Frankenstein will come away with the Oscar. Kate Hawley’s costumes stand out in the film and some of my favorite costumes of the year come from this film, a good amount of them being worn by Mia Goth. It was definitely still a hard choice to make because I could see Sinners and Hamnet winning for their amazing costumes. It does seem that the choice should still be Frankenstein. 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING 

Frankenstein, Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey 

Kokuho, Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu 

Sinners, Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry 

The Smashing Machine, Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein 

The Ugly Stepsister, Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg

I feel like compared to Best Costume Design, this category is a little bit easier. Although the makeup and hairstyling in The Ugly Stepsister is astonishing and really well done, I see Frankenstein coming home once again with the win. The makeup for the monster alone is so beautiful and the skill of the stylists matched with the beauty of the sets has to guarantee the Oscar for both this category, and Best Production Design.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Frankenstein, Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau 

Hamnet, Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton 

Marty Supreme, Jack Fisk and Adam Willis 

One Battle After Another, Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino 

Sinners, Hannah Beachler and Monique Champagne

With a great transition from the last category, paired with the makeup and hairstyling, the production design of Frankenstein seems like the sets to beat. There are so many astonishing sets in this film, my favorite being the ship. It looks really good for the crew of Frankenstein as the odds are in their favor to win all three of production design, costume, and makeup and hairstyling Academy Awards.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett 

F1, Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson 

Jurassic World Rebirth, David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould 

The Lost Bus, Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin 

Sinners, Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean

It’s another tie and this may even be a harder choice. If it could be my choice, F1 would sweep the whole Oscars, including Best Picture, but it can’t and won’t. However, I do see F1 winning for their groundbreaking visual effects. I mean, the crew created a new camera for this film. However, sadly the odds are in the favor of Avatar: Fire and Ash. The effects of the movie are great, and the majority of the movie is just entirely visual effects. It deserves the win, but I feel that the F1 movie, and how realistic and unnoticeable the visual effects are, should upset Avatar: Fire and Ash.

BEST SOUND MIXING

F1, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary Rizzo, Juan Peralta and Gareth John 

Frankenstein, Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern 

One Battle After Another, José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor 

Sinners, Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker 

Sirāt, Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas and Yasmina Praderas

Now it has been a few years since Top Gun: Maverick, but it seems as if Joseph Kosinski has once again found the perfect crew to do the sound editing for his film. As the favorite to win the Oscar in this category, the fans of the movie must love the sounds of engines. Except for only a few movies, the majority of Academy Awards in this category go to the loud movies, a lot of the time ones with cars, like Ford v. Ferrari. There is always a chance that a movie about music and sound could win, but it looks like F1 has pole position on this one.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

Butcher’s Stain 

A Friend of Dorothy 

Jane Austen’s Period Drama 

The Singers 

Two People Exchanging Saliva

An interesting title, but the story of an alternate world in which kissing is banned made a quite interesting watch. It tells a story of politics, but also of queer identity. It is strong and also has strong chances of winning as the best live action movie of the year, and it would be deserved. The composition was my favorite aspect of this short and the cinematography was outstanding. Another short that could win in this category is The Singers and the fight for the Oscar is mainly between the two shorts.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Butterfly 

Forevergreen 

The Girl Who Cried Pearls 

Retirement Plan 

The Three Sisters

The New Yorker could go two for two on short film Oscars this year with Two People Exchanging Saliva and Retirement Plan. This animated short is very impactful, telling us to not forget to live in the moment. However I believe that this award could go another way, and that would be to Butterfly. The powerful story of an Algerian-born Jew that competed for France in the 1936 Olympic games, and after surviving Auschwitz, returned to swim in the 1948 London Games. These two short films are too powerful to decide a true winner. I will be putting Retirement Plan on my ballot this year, but I would be happy if either won.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

All the Empty Rooms 

Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud

Children No More: “Were and Are Gone” 

The Devil Is Busy 

Perfectly a Strangeness

All of these documentaries have such strong and important messages in today’s society. The Devil Is Busy being about a normal day in an abortion clinic and Children No More: “Were and Are Gone” is about a weekly Tel Aviv vigil in memory of children killed in Gaza. However, not all nominees can win. Odds currently favor All the Empty Rooms and I agree with the odds, even though a win by any of these nominees would be amazing. All the Empty Rooms follows CBS News reporter Steve Hartman and photographer Lou Bopp as they take photos and journal the untouched bedrooms of children who were victims to school shootings.

FINAL THOUGHTS

It’s definitely a tough year and a hard year to pick a win in a lot of categories. With recent news like Timothée Chalamet’s comment on ballet and opera, I wonder if I should go back and change my predicted winner for Best Actor to Michael B. Jordan. It’s a great year for film, but a hard year for those who want a perfect ballot. I wish everyone researching what to put down on their ballots this year good luck, and please, continue to watch movies.